Strategic rebels: a spatial econometric approach to rebel fighting durations in civil wars

ABSTRACT

Recent research on multi-actor civil wars highlights that rebel organizations condition their conflict behavior on that of other rebel organizations, with competition and free-riding constituting the core theoretical mechanisms. We provide a new actor-centric approach to explicitly model strategic interdependence in multi-actor civil wars. We argue that rebel organizations have incentives to remain mobilized until the end of a conflict to maintain their power to negotiate, power to spoil, power to enforce, and power to protect. This induces strategic complements that dominate duration dynamics in multi-actor conflicts. Based on a network game-theoretic model, we derive a spatial econometric framework that allows for a direct test of strategic interdependence. We find that the estimated duration interdependence is positive but partially offset in secessionist conflicts where the public goods nature of the incompatibility also induces strategic substitution effects.     

A view from the policy community: a new strategic narrative for Europe?

ABSTRACT

Reflecting on the results presented in articles in this special issue, European leaders should take greater account of external perceptions in crafting the European Union's strategic narrative and guiding its actions. Failure to do so has impaired external policies like the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, the European Neighbourhood Policy and Eastern Partnership. Leaders emerging from the Arab uprisings perceived the EU as complicit with their countries’ former anciens régimes and Russian leaders see EU support for democracy and the market economy in former Soviet states as duplicitous and instrusive. Awareness of such perceptions should be filtered into EU decision-making, without validating views that European officials and diplomats consider misleading.     

构建中美核战略稳定性框架:非对称性战略平衡的视角

权力转移导致中美战略竞争加剧，维护中美战略稳定成为攸关中美关系发展以及世界和平与稳定的重大问题。构建中美核战略稳定性框架是实现中美战略稳定的基石。传统战略稳定理论主要基于美苏两大对称性阵营的敌对关系，对于不对称性和动态权力转移背景下的中美核战略稳定性的理论解释力和实践指导性不足。基于非对称战略平衡视角，中美核战略稳定性框架应以保证中国第二次核打击能力为基础。在机制层面，中美要加强交流、协商和谈判以建立相关机制，逐渐形成中美核战略关系的共识，推动达成稳定中美核战略关系的协议、条约等法律性承诺，从而构建稳定中美核战略关系的政治框架。在结构层面，中国无需谋求与美国对等的核力量。统筹考虑军事效用和政治效果，构筑包括核实力、核威慑决心和核威慑信息传递的完备核威慑战略，确保处于弱势的中国拥有对美国进行核反击造成美不可承受损失的能力，是实现中美核战略稳定的关键。     

论“两山”理念蕴含的科学思维方法

"两山"理念蕴含的科学思维方法,为新时代进一步推进生态文明建设提供了方法论指导,要求我们从战略思维上把生态文明建设上升到关乎中华民族伟大复兴的高度;从系统思维上把"人-自然-社会"作为内在的有机体去把握,把生态治理看作是一个复杂的系统工程;从辩证思维上把握"绿水青山"与"金山银山"的相互关系,在实践中把经济发展与环境保护构成统一的整体,走高质量发展之路。     

How (often) do voters change their consideration sets?

The consideration set model posits that in multi-party elections voters decide in two stages. We expect that in the consideration stage, when voters select viable options, ideological proximity is a key determinant, while in the choice stage election-specific factors become particularly important. This would imply that consideration sets are rather stable and that changes in voting preferences occur mainly within ideologically coherent consideration sets. This study examines both claims by analyzing panel survey data from Sweden and the Netherlands. Consideration sets were indeed rather stable, more so than voting intentions. After one year, voters still considered the same party in 81% of cases and only 13% of respondents shifted between ideological camps. This indicates that voters changed electoral preferences primarily within the boundaries of relatively stable consideration sets and ideological camps. These findings help to understand how elections can be volatile, despite the strong impact of highly stable ideological orientations.     

Military Integration,Demobilization, and the Recurrence of Civil War

ABSTRACT

Peace agreements often include provisions for the military integration of the conflict parties, involving an increase in government forces, and at the same time requesting demobilization and thus a reduction of military personnel. Depending on the modalities and magnitude both can be strong signals of a commitment to the peace process. However, tensions between these two concepts can also endanger post-conflict stability. The empirical analyses of 77 post-conflict societies show that civil war is more likely to recur if rebel forces are kept separate during the military integration process and if the military plays an important role in post-conflict economies.     

失地农民就业稳定性影响因素研究

失地农民的就业问题是我国城市化进程中不容忽视的问题。研究以“被征地后平均每份工作的 持续时间”作为界定就业稳定性的指标，从微观层面研究失地农民就业稳定性的影响因素。研究发现，在个体 特征方面，年龄、婚姻状况、工作年限对就业稳定性的影响显著，而性别、受教育程度、职业资格证书等级等 的影响则不显著；在岗位特征方面，社会保险、单位类型和所属行业对就业稳定性有显著影响，而岗位类型的 影响则不显著。此外，就业创业培训对失地农民的就业稳定性没有显著影响，而征地补偿金、补偿房屋出租等 征地后收入来源则显著降低失地农民的就业稳定性。     

The Stability of 4-Chloromethcathinone in Blood and Vitreous Humor

We present results of our study on the stability of 4-chloromethcathinone (4-CMC) in authentic postmortem peripheral blood and vitreous humor samples. The stability of 4-CMC was determined in postmortem blood samples (for a period of 90 days) and vitreous humor (30 days) at three different temperatures: −15°C, +4°C, and + 23°C. The analyses were carried out using ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with triple-quadrupole tandem mass spectrometry (UHPLC-QqQ-MS/MS). In both materials, the lowest 4-CMC stability was demonstrated at room temperature. The blood samples stored in a freezer (−15°C) showed stability for the entire study period (90 days), while in the case of the vitreous humor sample stored at the same temperature the concentration of the substance decreased by 53% after 30 days. The study carried out in authentic postmortem blood and vitreous humor samples confirms the previous reports of 4-CMC instability in biological material. Authors suggest that the biological material should be stored frozen until analyses are carried out as soon as possible after collection of the material.     

The Role of Brand Orientation in Developing a Learning Culture and Achieving Performance Goals in the Third Sector Organizations

ABSTRACT

This study is first in nature to find the empirical evidence of relationship between brand orientation (BRO), learning orientation (LO), and its impact on Performance (PERF) of third sector organizations (TSOs) in Pakistan. A structured questionnaire was filled through non-probability snowball sampling method from more than 300 senior managers working in different cities of Pakistan. The structural equation model was used for the mediation by running smart partial least squares software. The results prove that organizations with strong BRO philosophy not only help to develop strong LO culture but also help in achieving organizational performance goals. The study also discussed practical implications, limitations, and areas of future directions.     

中美复合战略稳定关系:建构依据、基本框架与发展趋势

中美战略稳定关系已经超越经典战略稳定性，向着复合战略稳定关系的方向演化。建构中美复合战略稳定关系是稳定两国关系的客观需要。彼此战略竞争加剧给中美之间非均势核威慑基础上的战略稳定性带来负面影响。在美国提高核力量于国家安全战略中的地位、将核武器重新作为霸权工具的背景下，中美战略稳定性面临挑战。特朗普政府对中国挑起贸易争端，经贸关系在中美关系中的“稳定器”和“压舱石”作用减弱，建构中美复合战略稳定关系的必要性凸显。中美之间经济深度相互依存，在维护国际体系稳定方面具有共同利益，这为建构中美复合战略稳定关系奠定了坚实的基础。中美复合战略稳定关系框架包括建立在非均势核威慑基础上的战略稳定性、双方经济的深度相互依存、战略互信、双方对话交流与合作机制等四根支柱，其中以非均势核威慑基础上的战略稳定性为核心支柱。虽然中美战略互信存在短板，但随着中国战略核力量的进步、中美经济相互依存的继续维持和双方对话交流与合作机制的成熟和完善，中美复合战略稳定关系将不断巩固。